Welcoem to posts!!
in the future - u will be able to do some more stuff here,,,!! like pat catgirl- i mean um yeah... for now u can only see others's posts :c
I get the sense that the English fans and media are finally beginning to acknowledge that Bukayo Saka is substantially better than Phil "he's got to start" Foden.
To be fair I am wrong on most things, but Saka > Foden is a hill I'm willing to die on. People will say it's recency bias from this tournament, but this has been obvious to me since the 2022 World Cup (see: https://youtu.be/wArAxLMyPbc), and in retrospect, it should have been obvious since at least 2021. However, I didn't see it early enough, as I too was initially caught up in the Foden frenzy.
Admittedly, Foden is world-class in specific environments, but a coach must bend over backwards to accommodate his limited attributes into the team, which negatively impacts his teammates (see Haaland for City and Kane for England). Saka, on the other hand, continuously puts in world-class performances no matter how poor the environment he's playing in. Yesterday was a great example of this: he was shoved out of position to accommodate "lesser" players and was still comfortably the best player on the pitch.
This didn't annoy me that much because the morons who think Foden is better than Saka do the same mis-profiling for countless other players, and I believe these people are exploitable in the betting markets. For example, Foden was shorter to be England's top scorer in Euro 2024 than Saka was. To demonstrate the lunacy of this, Foden has 4 goals in 39 apps, whilst Saka has 12 goals in 38 apps.
The reason this annoys me now is that England have a decent chance of winning Euro 2024, but the fans have built Foden up to be this player he clearly is not, and I think Southgate (who admittedly is a fool) believes he cannot drop Foden because of this. We now have a sample size of 5 games in this tournament, and it's so obvious that Gordon for Foden would drastically improve the dynamics of the team. I'm not sure that alone would be enough to overcome Southgate's desperately poor in-game management, but I wait in hope that he may finally see the light.
P.S. It would also help if the best right back in world football was starting.
4 - 2
What a tournament that was!
Can't quite believe those two missed putt's from Rory, but fair play to Bryson he's been incredible for the sport this year.
4 - 3
A line up which makes me want to rip my eyeballs out...
But who cares. Let's go England 🏴🏴🏴
Also, if you want to hear some of my thoughts on games and angles, I will be posting on Twitter throughout the tournament.
x.com/kiemillett
2 - 0
In February I predicted that Emery and Villa would struggle in the second half of the season. This was the mostly likely outcome given that it's basically a trademark for any Unai Emery team at this point.
Fast forward to today and the data has shown that this is exactly what happened. Only Luton have a worse xG difference per game than Villa since March.
Unfortunately for my Top 4 bet both Spurs & United have been utterly woeful too, so despite being correct on the outcome (Villa to underperform), I have to walk away with a loss from this market.
This is a little frustrating of course, but betting and trading is all about trusting the process and reaping the rewards in the long term.
Follow me on Twitter if you'd like to see more of my day to day thoughts on betting/trading 👍
6 - 1
AJ being 1.33 to BEAT Ngannou 😂
Such an astonishing mispricing 🤯
*Nice win on the Parker fight too*
9 - 2
All I dream for is a betting exchange that works 😥
4 - 3
Every season the media seem to forget that Man City don't typically "run away" with the league.
They've only been leading once after 17 games in the last 6 seasons
I'm convinced I've seen the "something seems a bit off with City this season" narrative every year for the past 5 seasons 🤣🤣
In reality City aren't God's and often have periods where they struggle, but everyone seems to forget this as they typically finish so strongly.
This isn't to say they'll definitely win the league this season (I hope they don't as I'm on Arsenal at 9.0), but odds of ~2.6 are starting to look very tempting.
5 - 6
You may have realised I'm very slow at making videos (hopefully will have one out before Christmas though).
In the meantime you can follow me on Twitter if you want to follow my terrible betting takes on a day to day basis.
twitter.com/kiemillett
11 - 0
Two days into July I suffered my biggest ever loss from a single market, but I recovered to make July the most profitable month of my betting career so far!
As always I upload a monthly P&L breakdown video to my Patreon for those who want to check it out.
www.patreon.com/KieMillett
17 - 4
It's a shame about the bad weather in the cricket.
But a great result from the golf has made it an excellent weekend!
10 - 5
You can watch me Betfair trading and sports betting and you can learn along with me as we try to find our edge.